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PROMETHEUS: The use of probabilistic climate data to future proof design decisions in the buildings sector
Dr D Coley, University of Exeter
Aim: To develop a new set of probabilistic reference years that can be understood and used by building designers.
Objectives:
- Nationally agreed protocol for the creation of probabilistic future test reference years from either a weather generator or transformed historical data. Protocol to include wind direction.
- Scientifically valid approach to the generation of wind direction and speed data for the building sector and a clear understanding of the limits of such data.
- A large ensemble of probabilistic reference years for use mainly by the academic community/or an agreed method for using probabilistic data directly in simulation and design.
- A clear understanding of the benefits of using probabilistic data and what form this should take (cf. Hanby et al. proposal).
- Study whether climate predictions outside of UKCP09 ones give rise to different predictions of future building behaviour.
- Understanding of the benefits of using data from weather generators to run multi-year simulations of buildings.
- A smaller group of probabilistic reference years for use by practising engineers, distributed by CIBSE, compatible with common building thermal models and possibly part of future amendments to the building regulations.
- A well researched understanding of the needs and hurdles faced by practitioners when using probabilistic results in the building sector.
- Case-study based evaluation of opportunities for change within the buildings sector, the range of adaptation strategies probabilistic data leads to and the costs.
Website: PROMETHEUS
Further details: Download pdf
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