COPSE: Coincident Probabilistic climate change weather data for a Sustainable built Environment

Prof Geoff Levermore, University of Manchester

Aim: To develop a methodology for deriving weather data for building designers etc that is based on future data rather than observational records from the last 20 years or so.

Objectives:

  • To establish UKCP09 based outputs and design criteria for domestic and non-domestic buildings with a consistent weather data framework.
  • To develop methodologies for transforming UKCP09 based probabilistic data into building design data for practitioners, developing a new design reference year (DRY) (similar to the Exeter proposal) and novel coincident occurrence selection, taking into account the range of requirements and capabilities to be found in the practitioner community.
  • Develop means of modifying the data to reflect the urban heat island effect and the capability of generating building design data for any UK location utilising the UKCP09 weather generator.
  • Provide academic papers and draft explanatory literature appropriate for professional practitioners and suitable for use in training, including UKCP09 scenario ‘story lines’ specifically related to buildings and their implications for the future.
  • To assess the adaptation potential for carbon emission reduction from new and refurbished buildings, using the new methodology and data.
  • To ensure the relevance and utility of outputs through creating a strong stakeholder group (SG) with a network of corresponding members (CM), and to validate the form and content of outputs through case-studies of new-build and refurbishment projects identified with the aid of SG and CM members. The case studies will also be used to assess adaptation potential for carbon emission reduction.

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